ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION PATTERN OF THE CITY OF BOGOR LEGISLATIVE ELECTION RESULTS IN 2009, 2014, AND 2019 USING THE MORAN'S INDEX AND LOCAL INDICATOR OF SPATIAL ASSOCIATION (LISA) METHODS

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and visualize the spatial distribution pattern of the results of the Bogor City DPRD legislative elections in 2009, 2014, and 2019, using the Moran Index and Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) methods. By looking at positive or negative spatial autocorrelation values and how strong the relationship or influence of vote acquisition in one region affects the outcome of vote acquisition in other locations. This research was conducted using a weighting matrix, namely the Queen Contiguity Matrix to see the neighbourhood areas that intersect between sides and corners of the five constituency areas in Bogor City. The analysis using the Moran Index method produced a spatial autocorrelation, where the political party as a whole got a negative Morans' I value and a P-Value>0.05. This shows that there is no relationship between constituencies with a random distribution pattern or not grouped in various constituencies in Bogor City. This indicates that each party has a support base that spreads across various regions. Meanwhile, the LISA method produces spatial autocorrelation analysis to determine the clustermap area, where in 2009, 2014 and 2019 the results of the study showed 3 legislative election periods. The spatial distribution pattern of election political parties in general does not follow the High-High (H-H), High-Low (H-L) and Low-Low (L-L) clusters. Meanwhile, in the Low-High (L-H) cluster, there are Gerinda parties and PKS in 3 election periods. The results of the research can be used as recommendations in determining the priority areas of political parties in each constituency to carry out winning strategies.